GLOBAL MIGRATION TRENDS: CURRENT SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS

Abstract

The aim of the article is to study current global migration trends in order to determine the priority areas of migration policy. The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that migration processes in today’s globalized environment  have a significant impact on both people and states – participants in these processes. With appropriate policies, migration can promote inclusive and sustainable development in both countries of origin and destination, as well as benefit migrants and their families. The article examines the trends in the number of international migrants in recent years, with an assessment of destination countries, origin, age and gender for all countries and regions of the world. The key trends of migration processes in 2020, as well as global migration trends related to the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified. Various scenarios for forecasting the main migration flows for the near future, created by the world’s leading analytical agencies, are considered. The key factors for 2021 that are decisive for migration in Europe and beyond, in particular the development of the COVID-19 crisis, are presented and assessed; uneven access to vaccines and economic recovery as drivers of migration; increased pressure on migration policy due to the pandemic; failures in migration cooperation with non-EU partners; migration impact of new crises; relocation along the main migration routes to Europe; continuing work on the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum.  The author concludes that both the long-term factors of migration and the short- and medium-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will increase, not decrease, the existing global imbalances and migratory pressures in 2021. Europe and the world need to prepare for complex migration processes and invest in global partnerships and cooperation to address related issues. Uneven access to vaccines in 2021 will lead to a strong imbalance between rich and poor countries. This will lead to an uneven economic recovery, which may lead to new and increased migration flows. Improving health care in Europe can become a magnet for immigration.