GEO-STRATEGIC THREATS TO HUMAN SOCIAL SECURITY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR

Abstract

The article examines human social security through the lens of geostrategic threats. Threats have been classified according to various characteristics. Special attention is paid to geostrategic threats and their consequences. It was determined that geostrategic threats have an external source of manifestation, and their consequences have an unpredictable, longterm, large-scale and interdependent nature of manifestation. An example of such geostrategic threats is the COVID-19 pandemic and a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The consequences of geostrategic threats are analyzed in conditional time periods: peaceful (until 2014), the period of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021), and the war period (after 2022). It was revealed that in peacetime threats to social security were generally internal in nature and were concentrated in the economic, social and political spheres, while geostrategic threats were of a monetary nature. After 2014, threats to human social security were directly related to people’s lives and health, as well as to the public position of citizens. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the threats related to the functioning of the health care system, the support of the most vulnerable population groups, and the transformation of employment and digitalization. It was determined that the level of manifestation of general geostrategic threats depends on specific geographical, political and economic conditions. Such threats may arise between states, regions, or other actors, and they can have profound effects on world order and stability. The main geostrategic threats to human social security in wartime include: military conflicts and violence; economic difficulties, manifested in a decline in economic activity, a decrease in investment, an increase in unemployment, an increase in inflation, a decrease in foreign trade, a decrease in budget revenues, an increase in debt, the threat of external financing, deterioration of infrastructure, deepening of the humanitarian crisis; energy crisis; environmental threats; inter-national conflicts and inter-ethnic tensions.