ANALYSIS OF THE RIVNE REGION DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS

Abstract

In this article, results of statistical analysis and analysis based on themethodology of the time series of some demographic indicators arepresented. The following indicators are selected as the studied indicators:the number of births and deaths, as well as the number of the obvious and permanent population in the Rivne region for the period 1950–2018. The tasks of the study included the following stages: 1) selection of demographic indicators; 2) statistical analysis of the studied demographic indicators for the period 1990–2018; 3) analysis of time series of demographic indicators for the period 1950–2018; 4) identification of time series models. The main demographic indicators of the Rivne region indicate the existence of a demographic crisis. In recent years, there has been a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, a decrease in the current and resident population in rural areas. In order to identify time series for the selected data, the following approaches were used: visual analysis of the time series graph; statistical analysis of demographic indicators; analysis of the autocorrelation function graph; generalized Dickey-Fuller test. The implementation of these approaches was carried out in the econometric package EViews. According to the analysis of ACF and PACF time series of demographic indicators of the Rivne region, it was found that for their modeling it is advisable to use first or second order autoregressive models.Checking the time series for stationarity using the Dickey–Fuller testshowed that under certain conditions (depending on the type of equation and the number of lags) some time series of demographic indicators can be considered as stationary. If the time series is non-stationary, then themathematical model is built not directly for the time series, but for a series of differences.