Статьи

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31713/ve2202625

Abstract

The article examines the modelling of regional energy clusters in the context of Ukraine’s international economic security. The relevance of the study is determined by the large-scale destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused by the full-scale war, the increasing vulnerability of the centralized energy system, and the need to strengthen the energy resilience of territorial communities. According to the International Energy Agency, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, nearly two-thirds of Ukraine’s dispatchable power capacity has been occupied, damaged or destroyed. At the same time, Ukraine’s total reconstruction and recovery needs are estimated at almost USD 588 billion, of which nearly USD 91 billion is required for the energy sector. The significant potential for decentralized renewable generation is also confirmed by the estimated rooftop photovoltaic potential of Ukraine, which reaches 238.8 GW, or 290 TWh per year. The purpose of the article is to substantiate an economic and mathematical model for assessing the effectiveness of a regional energy cluster in terms of energy availability, demand coverage, autonomy and dependence on centralized energy infrastructure. The proposed model includes the indicator of total available electricity, the energy coverage coefficient, the energy autonomy coefficient, and the coefficient of dependence on the centralized power grid. This approach makes it possible to quantitatively assess the capacity of a territorial community to meet its electricity demand through local generation, energy storage systems and centralized supply, taking into account technological losses. The study demonstrates that regional energy clusters can become an important tool for strengthening Ukraine’s international economic security. They reduce the vulnerability of communities to attacks on centralized energy infrastructure, support the functioning of critical facilities, stabilize local production and create conditions for more resilient post-war economic recovery. The proposed modelling approach can be used as a decision-support tool for local authorities, policymakers and energy managers in developing decentralized energy strategies and improving the resilience of regional energy systems under crisis conditions.

Author Biography