Статьи

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31713/ve2202617

Abstract

The article is devoted to the investigation of scenario planning as a methodological tool for ensuring the strategic flexibility of Ukrainian retail chains under conditions of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the full-scale armed conflict and the prospect of post-war economic recovery. The relevance of the study is determined by the inadequacy of traditional deterministic planning approaches for enterprises operating in an environment characterised by deep structural shifts, supply chain disruptions, significant fluctuations in consumer purchasing power, and unstable regulatory conditions. The purpose of the article is to develop the conceptual foundations for applying scenario planning as a methodological basis for the strategic flexibility of Ukrainian retail chains in wartime and post-war development conditions. The methodological basis of the research comprises a systematic approach, PESTLE analysis, matrix method, and abstract-logical reasoning. The article reveals the essence and key methodological principles of the scenario approach in strategic management of retail enterprises, emphasising its fundamental distinction from conventional forecasting: rather than predicting a single most probable future, scenario planning deliberately embraces the range of uncertainty, transforming it from a threat into a strategic resource. Based on an analysis of the external environment and expert assessment, the two most critical axes of uncertainty for Ukrainian retailers have been identified: the geopolitical context (duration and intensity of the armed conflict) and the dynamics of consumer purchasing power. At the intersection of these axes, an original four-scenario matrix has been constructed: “Recovery and Growth”, “Adaptive Resilience”, “Fortress”, and “Survival”, each accompanied by a specific strategic response and a set of priority managerial initiatives. A practical mechanism for integrating scenario planning into the strategic management system of retail chains has been substantiated, consisting of four interrelated blocks: an early-warning system based on quantitative trigger indicators, a cross-functional scenario team, a pre-developed strategic repertoire, and regular stress-testing of operational plans. Special attention is given to the concept of “robust strategies” — decisions that deliver acceptable results across all plausible scenarios — which include multichannel sales models, private label development, geographic diversification, and investment in alternative energy supply. The findings contribute to advancing the theory of strategic management in crisis conditions and have direct practical application for retail chain management teams engaged in strategic development planning.

Author Biography