ANALYSIS OF THE ENTREPRENEURIAL POTENTIAL OF FORESTRY UNDER MARTIAL LAW CONDITIONS

Abstract

The forestry sector traditionally contributes to resource security, employment, and regional development; however, under martial law it has experienced profound disruption due to landmine contamination of forest areas, war-induced wildfires,  damaged infrastructure, rising logistics and energy costs, regulatory shifts, and increasing environmental risks. These factors substantially limit access to forest resources and intensify uncertainty, necessitating a reassessment of approaches to  evaluating entrepreneurial potential in forestry. The purpose of this study is to substantiate theoretical and methodological principles for analyzing the entrepreneurial potential of forestry under martial law and to develop an assessment toolkit that  accounts for wartime security, logistical, ecological, and institutional constraints. Entrepreneurial potential is defined as the ability of forestry enterprises to sustainably generate income and employment, expand processing activities, withstand security and market shocks, and comply with environmental and institutional requirements. The paper conceptualizes entrepreneurial potential as a multicomponent system comprising four interrelated blocks: resource-production, financial-economic, market-institutional, and security-environmental. A key methodological contribution is the distinction between nominal potential,based on formally available resources, and realized potential, reflecting the feasible level of entrepreneurial activity under wartime restrictions. To operationalize this framework, a system of key performance indicators is proposed, covering resource accessibility, processing depth, energy efficiency, financial stability, logistics pressure, market transparency, traceability, and security readiness. On this basis, an integrated entrepreneurial potential index is developed using normalized indicators andweighted coefficients, enabling the inclusion of both stimulating and destimulating factors. The results indicate that security and logistics pressures exert the strongest negative impact on realized entrepreneurial potential, while increased processing, energy efficiency, and income diversification significantly enhance resilience. The proposed approach provides a realistic analytical basis for managerial decision-making and supports forestry policy design and post-war recovery strategies oriented toward sustainable development.