Understanding the nature of macroeconomic instability is the important step in developing and implementing effective economic policies. Analyzing macroeconomic instability, identifying its causes and consequences helps to anticipate possible risks and economic fluctuations, to use economic resources more efficiently, and to achieve a higher level of productivity and competitiveness. The аrticle assesses the macroeconomic instability of the national economy by economic parameters, taking into account macroeconomic development according to the global competitiveness index. According to the Global Competitiveness Index, which is calculated annually by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and reflects the overall competitiveness of economy, Ukraine was in the second half of the ranking in the years of 2010–2019 (89th place in 2010 and 85th in 2019). In the year of 2019, Ukraine lagged far behind in the groups of factors related to macroeconomic stability, government institutions, financial system, and health. At the same time, Ukraine's competitiveness strengths include infrastructure, skills, product and labor markets, and market size. According to the selected economic parameters for assessing macroeconomic instability, it was determined that the national economy in the years of 2010–2019, despite the upward trend in gross domestic product, was characterized by a lack of balance of payments, a growing trade deficit, a decline in the level of technology and value added production, and high unemployment level. The national economy had a small margin of safety, and the slightest financial and monetary disturbances could seriously destabilize the economy. Research of the correlation between the gross domestic product dynamics and economic parameters of macroeconomic instability shows a strong inverse (negative) relationship between the gross domestic product dynamics and the trade balance, unemployment rate, and export-import coverage ratio. To quantify macroeconomic instability for the period 2010–2019, the methodology of calculating the integral coefficient has been used. The construction of the integral coefficient of macroeconomic instability can be used as an indicator of the approaching macroeconomic instability.
Author Biographies
Natalia Savina, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Rivne
Doctor of Economics, Professor
Petro Radovenchuk, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Rivne
