FORECASTING CHANGE IN ANTHROPOGENIC LANDSCAPES OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article analyzes the role of forecasting in identifying anthropogenic trends in the development of landscape complexes.  Forecasting is an important aspect of research, as it substantiates decision-making on the use, protection, management of the natural environment and natural resources. The problems of forecasting research are related to the complexity of the forecasting object, the presence of complex internal relationships, external factors, the underdevelopment of the complex system of forecasting methods, as well as the incompleteness of the information necessary for forecasting, which actualizes the research, especially during the period of martial law. Systemic, landscape, ecological, landscape-ecological approaches are used to study the effects of anthropogenic complexes on the landscape, as well as the principles of optimization of the natural environment, evaluated from the perspective of economic use and possible anthropogenic disturbance of landscapes. There are several aspects of assessment – socio-economic, ecological, technological, engineering and others. In forecasting, their main goal is to study the issues of pollution of the natural environment, its biological productivity and the resistance of ecosystems to anthropogenic stress. The main types of impacts on anthropogenic modification of landscapes were evaluated; classification of landscapes according to their susceptibility to pollutants; natural anthropogenic landscape and the level of its anthropogenic changes; impact of man-made objects on the environment; optimization of landscape complexes. In forecasting, the types, scales, and trends of manifestation of the consequences of changes in the territorial and sectoral structure of the economy, land use, and population resettlement under the influence of influencing factors are investigated. Irrational use of nature becomes the cause of disruption of relationships in natural systems, their degradation, increased development of negative ecological processes, reduction of productivity of natural resources, loss of geosystems ability to self-regulate. Considered ecological aspects of damage to natural ecosystems, nature conservation areas and objects of the nature reserve fund as a result of military operations in Ukraine. Forecasting environmental risks is important, because in the absence of control and opportunities to eliminate negative consequences, they increase the scale of negative environmental impact on the surrounding natural environment. The main directions for solving the problems of impact on the natural environment in Ukraine at the state level in the conditions of martial law, which requires a more effective system of monitoring the state of the environment, are proposed.