IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND BEHAVIOURAL DETERMINANTS

Abstract

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic growth is analysed,including taking into account the economic expectations of enterprises that have the greatest impact on the country’s GDP. According to optimistic estimates, the recovery of the economy to the pre-pandemic indicators will take at least 2 years. At the same time, the slow recovery of the country’s economy after the pandemic crisis is offset by advantages for certain activities and human development opportunities.It is determined that the pandemic and its limitations have caused notonly negative but also positive consequences for economic developmentthrough the accelerated penetration of new methods of communication and interaction in economic processes. Such processes have positiveconsequences for the expansion of human development due to increase of digital skills, tools and opportunities for remote interaction, whichsignificantly expands the opportunities for safe employment and adequateremuneration.At the same time, methodological omissions were revealed regardingthe assessment of the pandemic’s impact on behavioural determinants.Based on a critical analysis of existing approaches to grouping workers bypandemic risk, their own classification is proposed, which allows to take into account the risks of direct professional activity. In this regard, it is proposed to distinguish employees of three groups: 1) with critical occupational risks of pandemic impact; 2) with high professional risks; 3) with moderate risks.Such a classification can be combined with traditional approaches toassessing the risks of infection associated with age, health status. Inaddition, it can and should be combined with the grouping of activities bycriticality of the functions performed – especially in relation to the security of the state and its citizens. Taking these characteristics into account is typical for assessing the levels of risk carried out by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and international expert (McKinsey) and governments of UK and USA. However, in contrast to the dominant approaches to assessing health risks by age groups and critical infrastructure workers, the classification of employment by occupational risks in a pandemic is proposed, which allows to take into account the specifics of employment by risk saturation and form of economic interaction. This classification is useful for assessing changes in behaviouraldeterminants in different occupational risk groups in quarantine andimproving employment conditions.