DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS: COMPARATIVE CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL FORECASTING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31713/ve3202216Keywords:
demographic dynamics, forecasting, population size, rural and urban population.Abstract
In this study the peculiarities of demographic trends of Ukraine and in a separate region are revealed; and selective regional forecasting with the distribution of the population according to the parameters of the area for the purposes of the environmental project is provided.The authors used methods of dynamic, structural and comparative analysis and methods of regional demographic forecasting for the purposes of an environmental project using time series. The sample was formed on the basis of the period from 1989 to 2021 with a differentiated breakdown for various purposes of the following indicators: population size, number of births and deaths, country and region migration indicators, sampled demographic indicators with a distribution of parameters by area (urban and rural), shares of demographic indicators of the region in the country. The obtained results proved the existence of different statistical configurations of demographic dynamics in the country and the region, as well as the differences in rural and urban areas. Within the framework of this study, downward demographic trends in Ukraine were quantitatively confirmed, and it was found that they differ from those in Zakarpattia. The identified differences related to the period of the «demographic cross», the configuration of the dynamics, the nature of natural and migratory growth/decline and their impact on the general demographic picture. In general, Zakarpattia demonstrated greater demographic stability and the presence of population growth over a long period of time, although the dynamics have also changed in recent years.The authors confirmed the importance of contextual analysis for choosing a demographic forecasting method and the possibility of using variable time series to obtain more reliable statistical forecasts.In order to take into account the demographic changes associated with the war, migration processes in the region were analyzed and the corresponding permanence of a certain part of IDPs and, in addition, communities with their large concentration in Zakarpattia Oblast, were identified. In general, the monitoring of the number of IDPs was carried out across all communities. For the purposes of the project, this value was added to the permanent number of OTG under three scenarios.References
Kompleksnyi demohrafichnyi prohnoz Ukrainy na period do 2050 r. / za red. chl.-kor. NANU, d.e.n., prof. E. M. Libanovoi. K. : Ukrainskyi tsentr sotsialnykh reform. 2006. 138 s.
Lybanova Е. M. Demohrafycheskye sdvyhy v kontekste sotsyalnoho razvytyia. Demohrafiia ta sotsialna ekonomika. 2014. № 1. S. 9−23.
Naselennia Ukrainy. Demohrafichni tendentsii v Ukraini u 2002–2019 rr. : kol. monohr. / za red. O. M. Hladuna ; NAN Ukrainy, In-t demohrafii ta sotsialnykh doslidzhen imeni M. V. Ptukhy. Kyiv, 2020. 174 s.
United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects. 2019. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/. (data zvernennia: 15.09.2022).
Kuzmynchuk N. V. Prohnozuvannia demohrafichnoi sytuatsii u rehioni ta yii vplyv na perspektyvy zhyttiezabezpechennia naselennia. Naukovyi visnyk NLTU Ukrainy. 2011. Vyp. 21 (17). S. 374−383.
Baraniak I. Ye. Prohnozuvannia tendentsii rozvytku demohrafichnykh protsesiv u rehioni (na prykladi Lvivskoi oblasti. Rehionalna ekonomika. 2013. № 1. S. 131−137.
Ivanisov O. V., Lebedynska O. S. Metodychni aspekty prohnozuvannia demohrafichnykh protsesiv. Ekonomicheskoe razvitie i nasledie Semena Kuznetsa : materialy Mizhnar. naukovoi konf., 1−2 cherv. 2019 r. Kh. : KhNEU im. S. Kuznetsia.
Doronina O. A., Mazur H. F., Klymchuk O. V., Yakymova N. S. Znachennia sotsialno-demohrafichnoho prohnozuvannia u realizatsii stratehii ekonomichnoho rozvytku. Ekonomika ta derzhava. 2021. № 3. S. 14−17.
Kukush O. H., Melekestseva A. A., Hunko N. V. Prohnozuvannia demohrafichnykh pokaznykiv z dopomohoiu splainiv. Demohrafichna statystyka. 2021. № 4.
Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. Demohrafichna ta sotsialna statystyka. 2021a. URL: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/. (data zvernennia: 15.09.2022).
Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. Demohrafichna ta sotsialna statystyka. Holovne upravlinnia statystyky u Zakarpatskii oblasti. 2021b. URL: http://www.uz.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (data zvernennia: 15.09.2022)
