ENTERPRISE PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN A GLOBAL PANDEMIC

Abstract

The article describes the ways of spreading the COVID-19 pandemic in the world and in Ukraine, as well as the negative impact it has on the economy and other spheres of public life. The scale of the spread of the virus was assessed both on a territorial basis and on the affected population. Some indicators of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic are presented, as well as expert forecasts regarding the depth and timing of its continuation. The restrictive measures taken by the governments of the countries in relation to business in the conditions of quarantine and a ratio of positive and negative consequences of these measures are considered. The most common measures were the closure of external borders, limiting the number and opening hours of public catering establishments, and promoting personal hygiene. The losses of the Ukrainian economy from anti-epidemic measures in absolute numbers and as a percentage of GDP are studied, as well as a forecast of the final losses for the 2020 calendar year is given. It is based on the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, which show a significant drop in most sectors of the economy, in particular, the financial result of enterprises, the percentage of unprofitable enterprises, the index of industrial production, the supply of energy resources, etc. The influence of force majeure circumstances on business planning is estimated, in particular the peculiarities of using business planning approaches and models in modern conditions. Methods of forecasting and decision-making in the context of a pandemic in various spheres of enterprise activity with the  use of modern information technologies are offered. In particular, the using of time series dynamics analysis, exponential smoothing, adaptive models is considered.