MIGRATION BEHAVIOUR OF THE POPULATION IN TIMES OF CRISIS

Abstract

The article examines the migration behaviour of the population during crises, particularly in the context of the full-scale war in Ukraine, which triggered the most significant migration flow in Europe since World  War II. The key determinants of migration decisions are identified, among which security factors, economic expectations, social support and access to services in potential destination countries play a leading role. Particular attention is paid to changes in the motivational components of migration decisions over time, from forced displacement to adaptive behaviour patterns and the long term formation of intentions for integration or return. The study compares the features of migration flows before and after 2022, with an emphasis on socio-economic opportunities in the countries of the European Union. It was found that perceptions of employment prospects and access to support programs significantly shape the choice of destination country, and that the level of education is a significant factor in migrants' competitiveness in the labour market. In particular, individuals with higher education demonstrate consistently higher employment rates in host countries, which potentially affects the duration of their stay abroad and reduces the likelihood of return. It is concluded that modern approaches to managing migration processes require innovative monitoring tools, including the use of digital analytics, artificial intelligence and geographic information systems to predict migration trends and support decision-making. The proposed implementation of GIS tools enables spatial visualisation of migration flows, integration of data on infrastructure, social, and economic resources of territories, and modelling of population mobility scenarios in the short and long term. Its application enables adaptive management of migration processes, enhancing the effectiveness of policies for support, accommodation, and social integration of displaced persons. A concept for an information platform is proposed that would provide potential migrants with reliable data on opportunities in the country of origin and help reduce unjustified migration risks. The results obtained can be used to improve state migration policy, increase the resilience of socio-economic systems and preserve human capital in the post-crisis period.