ARIMA model, CO2 forecasting, decarbonization, aluminum industry, management of sustainable development
Abstract
The article is devoted to the management of sustainable development of aluminum foundries. In modern industrial conditions, aluminum foundries play a crucial role in various sectors of the economy, including the automotive, aerospace and construction industries. However, the energy-intensive nature of aluminum production, combined with environmental problems, requires the development of sustainable management strategies to ensure long-term production efficiency and environmental responsibility. The aim of the study is to develop a theoretical and methodological framework for the management of sustainable development of aluminum foundries. The study examines global trends in sustainable development management in the metallurgical industry, identifying key factors affecting the efficiency and sustainability of aluminum casting operations. The research methodology combines qualitative and quantitative approaches, including statistical analysis. Empirical data from leading aluminum foundries serve as a basis for testing and validating the proposed management strategies.The article presents a study incorporating the use of the ARIMA model for forecasting CO2 emissions in the metallurgical sector, particularly in the aluminum industry. The analysis covers time series of emissions from 2005 to 2023, utilizing modern methods for assessing stationarity and modeling. The results confirm the effectiveness of ARIMA in identifying short-term trends, which are crucial for implementing decarbonization strategies. The importance of integrating ARIMA with other methods is emphasized to enhance forecasting accuracy and promote sustainable development. The projected trend of decreasing CO2 emissions by 2050 aligns with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and demonstrates significant potential for theapplication of «green» technologies in aluminum production, particularly in the context of restoring production in Ukraine.The results have important scientific and practical implications, as they suggest innovative solutions to improve the sustainability of aluminum foundries. The study contributes to the current discourse on sustainable industrial development, providing valuable information for business representatives, policymakers and researchers in the field of aluminumproduction and environmental management.
Author Biography
Victor Tryhuba, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Rivne
