METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Abstract

The article examines the peculiarities of methods of analysis and forecasting in the system of international economic relations. Attention is focused on the fact that global long-term macro forecasts and the methodology of their implementation still remain largely undeveloped and require further scientific research. Speaking about the prognostic and analytical study of trends in the development of international economic relations, it is worth noting that this is the main trend that has been followed throughout the 20-th century. The first predictive and analytical models describing global international economic development were models built by J. Forrester in the 1970s at the initiative of the Club of Rome. In the later period, macroeconomic forecasts of global dynamics were presented by various scientific communities and organizations such as: divisions of the UN, World Bank Group, Goldman Sachs, ІСЕМВ РАН etc. The process of researching global economic indicators led to the need to apply special diagnostic methods with a system of substantiated economic indicators when developing macroeconomic forecasts. The American system of economic indicators became the basis. As for the main methods used in forecasting in the system of international economic relations, the following are distinguished:  intuitive, combined, formalized. The main methods of analysis include the  following: predictive extrapolation methods, system-structural methods, associative methods, anticipatory information methods. The use of the above-mentioned methods is an important  element of managing the processes of scientific and technical development [4]. The analysis of innovative technologies and the consequences of their application requires the availability of relevant reliable information for making management decisions, starting from the national  level to the level of a separate economic entity. So, for example, companies of international importance, based on methods of analysis and forecasting, predict the priority areas of their own scientific research work, carry out planning of new product development, make strategic decisions regarding the licensing of their technologies and the creation of joint ventures. In addition, it should be emphasized that international rating agencies have a significant weight when assessing the development prospects of both the world’s largest multinational companies and individual national economies. These are, for example, such agencies as Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, Fitch Ratings. With their forecasts and assessments, they can influence the financial situation in one or another region, in one or another country. It should  be noted that their role especially increases during various economic crises and global problems related, for example, to the repayment of public debt or the financing of budget expenditures. The use of methods of analysis and forecasting in solving the most complex socio-economic problems both at the national and international level can stimulate strategically oriented thinking, identify likely trends, opportunities and potential threats. Among the existing development trends in the system of international economic relations, the application of the above-mentioned methods can help to identify the factors that are most likely in the development of any geopolitical situation and can unexpectedly change the course of events.