WAR-INDUCED TRANSFORMATION OF IRRIGATED AGROECOSYSTEMS IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE: PROBLEM ACTUALIZATION AND RESEARCH PERSPECTIVES UNDER CONDITIONS OF HYDROLOGICAL COLLAPSE

Abstract

The article addresses the problem of war-induced transformation of irrigated agroecosystems in Southern Ukraine under conditions of hydrological collapse caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant and the drainage of the Kakhovka Reservoir. It is substantiated that the loss of irrigation regulation has become a systemic trigger for the transition of agricultural systems from an anthropogenically controlled water–thermal regime to a climate-driven state of functioning. The theoretical framework of the study is based on the concepts of socio-ecological systems, resilience, and regime shifts, which allow interpreting current transformations as a nonlinear process of loss of bioclimatic stability.The cascading mechanism of post-irrigation transformation within the system “soil moisture – temperature – vegetation” is revealed, where moisture deficit initiates an increase in thermal stress, suppression of vegetation cover, decline in bioproductivity, and the formation of self-reinforcing degradation processes. It is proposed to consider post-irrigation transformation as a specific type of regime shift caused by the loss of anthropogenic control over the hydrological regime.Prospective directions for further research are identified, including the detection of threshold states of bioclimatic stability, spatio-temporal modeling of aridization processes, integration of satellite-based indicators into environmental monitoring systems, and assessment of environmental and socio-economic consequences of irrigation loss. The results of the study provide a scientific basis for developing strategies for sustainable post-war recovery of Southern Ukraine and for adapting agricultural production to new climatic and resource constraints.