MATHEMATICAL PROGNOSTICATION MODEL OF THE INDICATOR OF DEVELOPMENT INDEX OF ECONOMIC SPHERES OF MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES OF UKRAINE

Authors

  • L. V. Klymenko National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Rivne

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31713/vs220246

Keywords:

economic sphere, indicators, stimulants, destimulants, mathematical models, regression, correlation coefficients, determination coefficients, error

Abstract

The article presents data of analysis and state assessment of economic sphere of medium-sized cities according to 12 indicators the quantitative values of which were normalized in the scale from 0 to 1,0, using the formula for stimulants and destimulants. On the basis of these data the correlation analysis was carried out, and on the basis of matrix coefficients the indicators which efficiently influence the value of the development index of economic sphere of these cities were established. Multivariate linear regression describes the dependence of development index of economic sphere of medium-sized cities on seven indicators which characterize the following ones: x1 – the main indicators, of economic activity, x4 – the development of enterprises, x6, x7 – investment activity, x8, x9 – foreign economic activity, x10 – transport activity when determination coefficient is 0,999. When doing usability testing for multivariate linear regression, it is ascertained that discrepancies in indicators of development index of economic sphere of medium-sized cities calculated from 12 indicators as arithmetic mean and development index of economic spheres of these cities, calculated according to multivariate linear regression, do not exceed errors from 0 to 4,2%. The received mathematical model which describes the influence of development index of economic sphere of medium-sized cities on integral index of sustainable development of cities has the appearance of a straight line with correlation coefficient 0,84. The error range compared to integral indices of sustainable development of cities calculated from three indicators of social, economic, ecological spheres of cities development and calculated integral indices of sustainable development according to the dependence of straight line was changing from 0,2 to 15,4%.

Author Biography

L. V. Klymenko, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Rivne

Candidate of Agricultural Sciences (Ph.D.), Associate Professor

Published

2024-09-25

Issue

Section

Articles