REGULARITIES OF PERENNIAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE STEPPE ZONE OF UKRAINE
Keywords:
climate change, air temperature, precipitation, time series analysis, mul-tidimensional statistics, Markov chains.Abstract
Climate changes is differ by diversity, characterized by different levels of intensity of manifestations, the frequency of climatic anomalies, the periodicity of extreme weather events in space and time. The article presents a retrospective analysis of climate change in the southern subzone of the Steppe of Ukraine. The study used the annual values of surface air temperature and sum of precipitation at Kherson station, archival observation data for 120 years (1900–2019). The observation period with strong manifestations of anomalous temperatures is 45 years (37.5%) and 10 years (8.3%) with very strong anomalies of the temperature regime. During this period, there was an increase in average annual air temperature by 2.5° C. The absolute value of anomalies of annual precipitation was 26.7%. Three main periods of average annual air temperature and the amount of precipitation over a hundred years have been identified: decrease (early twentieth century), stabilization or balance (mid-twentieth century) and growth (late twentieth and early twenty-first century). Studies of intra-annual climate change have shown that in the long-term dynamics there is a manifestation of warming during the first 10 months at 2.4° C and an increase in average annual precipitation by 110 mm. The intra-cyclic properties of climatic indicators were determined using Markov chains. The inertial probability of recurrence of hot years is estimated at 0.48, and hot years after cold at 0.60. The inertial probability of recurrence of wet years was 0.50, wet years after dry – 0.47. It has been found that hot periods lasting 3–5 years are more likely than the same cold periods, and periods without rain lasting 3–5 years are more likely than periods with precipitation. This indicates a cyclical increase in average annual air temperature and a possible decrease in annual precipitation in the southern subzone of the Steppe of Ukraine. As a result of calculations of alternation of climatic periods, was determined the maximum probability for hot-cold periods 0.275 (t = 2) and for wet-dry periods 0.242 (t = 3).References
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